The latest Centrix Credit Indicator (February 2026) shows arrears reaching their expected seasonal high, with lending activity remaining strong across key segments of the market. While this lift is consistent with recent trends, it highlights where pressure is currently concentrated, particularly across unsecured lending, even as broader credit conditions remain more stable than a year ago.
In our February market report, consumer arrears were 12.07%, with 471,000 people behind on payments.
This month, arrears have increased further to 12.56%, with the number of consumers behind on payments rising to 491,000, an increase of 20,000 people month on month. Despite this rise, arrears remain 0.8% lower year on year.
Mortgage Arrears Rise Slightly
Mortgage arrears have increased from 1.37% in the previous report to 1.42% in January. The number of mortgage accounts past due has also risen from 21,800 to 22,600.
While this reflects a lift from the previous month, mortgage arrears remain 9% lower year on year, indicating that underlying mortgage stress continues to improve despite short term fluctuations.
Credit Cards Edge Higher
Credit card arrears have risen again, increasing from 4.0% to 4.2%, now sitting at their highest level since April.
Despite this increase, credit card arrears remain 8% lower than a year ago, showing that longer-term performance is still trending in a positive direction.
Demand for credit cards continues to soften, with enquiries down 18.6% year on year, suggesting consumers remain cautious when it comes to revolving credit.
Personal Loans Continue to Drive Pressure
Personal loans remain the most pressured segment of the market.
Arrears have increased further to 10.2%, the highest level recorded in the past decade, and up 6% year on year.
This is a clear increase from the previous report, where arrears were 9.8%, showing that pressure in unsecured lending continues to build.
At the same time, demand remains strong, with personal loan enquiries up 13.5% year on year, highlighting that borrowing activity remains elevated even as repayment performance weakens.
BNPL Arrears Climb Further
BNPL arrears have also increased, rising from 7.9% to 8.6%.
While this represents a month-on-month increase, BNPL arrears are noted as broadly unchanged year on year, indicating that current levels are elevated but not worsening compared to the same time last year.
Demand for BNPL remains relatively stable, down just 0.8% year on year, suggesting continued usage even as repayment pressure increases.
The Bigger Picture
Compared with our February market report, seasonal pressures have continued to build:
- Total consumer arrears have risen from 471,000 to 491,000
- The arrears rate has increased from 12.07% to 12.56%
- Mortgage arrears have edged up from 1.37% to 1.42%
- Credit card arrears have increased from 4.0% to 4.2%
- Personal loan arrears have climbed from 9.8% to 10.2%, while BNPL arrears have risen from 7.9% to 8.6%
While arrears have reached their seasonal high, the broader trend remains more stable than a year ago. Mortgage stress continues to track below 2024 levels, and overall arrears remain lower year-on-year.
With lending activity still strong, particularly across mortgages and personal loans, the data suggests households remain active in the credit market. The key signal to watch in the coming months will be whether arrears begin to ease again as the year progresses, or whether pressure in unsecured lending persists.
